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October 24, 2004

Shell Game In the Guardian

A wacko environmentalist tried to pull a trick with a shiny spoon in the UK Guardian in response to Bjorn Lomborg's numbers on environmental problems.

This is neither scepticism nor science - just nonsense

Why is Bjorn Lomborg's work on climate change taken seriously?

To answer his question, it's because environmentalists screamed and gnashed their teeth but utterly failed at refuting him. For those who think we should spend a few million to provide safe drinking water in Africa the environmentalists have said "screw it, build a windmill instead. That'll stop global warming and save the world." It's just like protecting the populace from DDT by killing off 80 million of them, making Hitler and Stalin look like amateurs.

The self-proclaimed sceptical environmentalist Bjorn Lomborg has been visible on London's seminar circuit this week promoting his argument that spending money on climate change is wasteful and that the world would be much better off spending it on halting Aids and providing water and sanitation instead.

He's not just a self-proclaimed skeptical environmentalist, he actually is one. What he objects to is innumerate fear-mongering that so badly misallocates the money allotted to address environmental problems. The environmental money pie isn't infinitely large, so when you have idiots peddling junk science and utter pap to get that entire amount spent to fight a non-existent threat then the entire amount is totally wasted, meaning real problems remain unaddressed.

For example, we're going to spend a billion dollars per year of life saved by trying to reduce arsenic levels in the US from epsilon (50 parts per billion - almost immeasurably close to zero), to some terrifically smaller amount close to zero (10 parts per billion, or 0.010 mg/L), which even the Washington Post said will save only a couple dozen lives a year. And even this ignores the fact that the chemicals used to remove the arsenic will actually kill more people than we're saving, all to eliminate what may be an essential trace element and useful medicine which is already abundant in our food, especially in fish, which are considered safe even if they have a thousand times the amount of arsenic (2 to 80 mg/L) that has everyone going nuts.

I suppose that it's cool, politically correct, and way more fun than actually keeping poor people from dying horrible twitching deaths, but it is certainly a staggering waste of time, money, and the public's finite attention span.

Despite his consistent attacks on environmentalists for exaggerating the planet's problems, Lomborg is actually no more a sceptic than he is an environmentalist. The latter claim rests solely on his having contributed to Greenpeace in his youth. The former claim is belied by his deep faith in a wholly benign future for the planet.

It wasn't his consistent attacks but his actual data and statistics which got Lomborg named "Global Leader for Tomorrow" by the World Economic Forum and one of the world's most 100 influential people. That's why this writer in the Guardian is reduced to hurling ad hominems instead of addressing the fact that environmentalists have unquestionably been exaggerating problems, using shameful fear mongering to try and scare up funding.

This gives him the same kind of sunny and often appealing optimism that we see in President Bush.

Keep you eye on that hidden ball, because this wacko just tried to pull a sleight of hand and distract you with "Lomborg=Bush=Hitler".

By one of those amazing coincidences that can suddenly snap things into focus, Lomborg was putting his case this week in the building next door to the one in which an unprecedented coalition of environment and development bodies was spelling out, in some detail, exactly how climate change is already intensifying poverty.

And how exactly would something like a century's ten inch rise in sea level, the best estimate of The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, actually do that, pray tell? The same panel also predicts a catastrophic rise in average global temperature of about 1-3.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. Taking the middle of that range and looking at a climate map means Washington DC will be as hot as Richmond Virginia, and central Kentucky will suffer the unbearable heat currently found in central Tennessee, which surely can't support human life as we know it. They want to get everyone panicked about the earth getting too hot to support life, but my reasoned plan for coping with this oncoming disaster is to twiddle my thumbs for 99 years, eleven months and then throw my stuff in the car and drive two hours north, grabbing a hamburger on the way.

He is in London in advance of the publication of a new book on the conclusions of the Copenhagen Consensus. Sponsored by the Economist, Lomborg invited eight Nobel Prize winning economists to meet in Copenhagen. Their task was to decide how best to spend a (notional) additional $50bn dollars in order to advance global welfare, particularly in developing countries.

Keep you eye on that ball, ladies and gentlemen, because he's about to go all bonkers.

No one can fault Lomborg's ambition. Getting two economists to agree about something is difficult enough. Getting eight to agree about everything must have been daunting.

To help them on their way the laureates were offered a top 10 list of global challenges, such as disease, hunger, water, migration and climate change, and invited to use cost-benefit analysis to rank them in terms of value for money. To no one's surprise, they came to the same conclusion as Lomborg on the value of climate change.

The concluded it's a really idiotic way to blow billions of dollars, much less trillions. The problem with blowing money like that is that human aid budgets aren't infinite, and money that could've gone to malaria prevention will instead be spent on wildly expensive new coal scrubbers in Europe, on the theory that it's somehow helping save African lives.

The reality is that applying cost-benefit analysis to questions such as these is junk economics. Junk economics done by Nobel laureates is simply distinguished junk economics. Applying the logic of the Copenhagen Consensus to the Iraq war illustrates this nicely.

Now you see an argument, now you don't! It's just junk economics, well, just because! "Oh look, a shiny spoon!" just before he devolves into "Iraq War, quagmire, quagmire, Bush=Hitler". He drones on and on for some length, but never addresses Lomborg's findings or position other than offering up such idiotic distractions as this

How did that compare to the cost of an Iraqi soldier? Were Iraqi civilian casualties to be counted as a cost or a benefit? What is the avoided cost, therefore a benefit, of preventing the launch of one nuclear weapon by Saddam? Should you discount the benefit of preventing subsequent launches to allow for the diminished value of whatever target had first been attacked?

We often maintain that many environmentalists are either badly deluded or downright stupid, and they oblige by proving it at each and every opportunity. Go read the rest of the article if you don't believe me, where he dodges, distracts, smears, and relys on every faulty bit of reasoning he can muster. What he and his ilk would never suggest is that you actually read Lomborg's book.

October 24, 2004 in Politics | Permalink

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Comments

[blather]But George, Lomberg is an economist not an environmentalist. It's not his area of expertise; he's simply not knowledgeable enough to perform the most basic of environmental tasks: extorting grant money from the government with dire predictions and ominous, glowering Cassandra-like Congressional testimony. (I've got the James Earl Jones voice down, but I'm trying to grow my eyebrow long and bushy to do a better job of this).

Besides, everyone knows that Global warming will bring on global cooling: I've intensively researched the fact by watching the "Day After Tomorrow" multiple times. [/Blather]

Posted by: Bishop at Oct 24, 2004 9:53:49 AM

Very true - Lomborg is a clear thinker. I fail to understand how someone from Friends of the Earth can have been "a special advisor" to Michael Hesseltine (another clear thinker) - "special" must mean "ignorable"?

Posted by: jorgen at Oct 24, 2004 9:57:54 AM

Of course, if the reason Lomberg is dismissable is because he's an economist, then he can dismiss the environmentalists dismissals of his economics...

Got that?

Anyway, I was reading an article in =First=Things= yesterday called "Strange Science", which reminded me about something from history I had forgotten. First, a warm period in Europe from about 800-1300 (when the Vikings went to Greenland, North America, and Iceland... and these places did have agricultural potential). Then there's that 300-year period, from about mid-16th century to mid-19th century called the Little Ice Age. I knew about both of these because of histories, but didn't connect them to the global warming theories. People might not realize that the "baseline" (no standard collection of data til about the mid-1800s) for the warming trend was part of an unusual cold time... but no one wants to think that large climate fluctuations have nothing to do with anything people do, and have been going on for quite some time without our help.

Hmmmm....

Posted by: Meep at Oct 25, 2004 5:19:01 AM

Good points.

Before the disasters hit shouldn't we be farming in Greenland again? And I dearly loved the illogic behind "Day After Tomorrow." It's going to get so hot that we freeze to death! Good thing we'll have those backyard glaciers to keep us cool during the staggering heat waves brought on by global warming.

Posted by: George Turner at Oct 25, 2004 12:18:38 PM

For quite some time I have been asking - and getting no answer - as to why General Motors has not been forced to divulge its space drive. After all, if "Climate Change" is due to SUV's and the like, someone must be shipping consumer goods to Mars and the moons of the giant planets - which are warming. Couldn't have anything to do with the Sun, nosirree Bob!

Posted by: John Anderson at Oct 26, 2004 9:56:36 PM

Re glaciers in backyards. For about the last four years I lived in a place that did have glaciers in the backyard. Chamonix France was threatened by advancing glaciers during the little ice age and at another period(don't remember which). To remedy this they actually had the Catholic Church send an =Exorcist= to inlist Christ and co to send the glaciers back up amongst the hellish spires(people didnt like mountains before the 19th century). Nowadays people in Chamonix winge about how things will be 50 years hence with global warming and so on. A local museum has simulated photos of what the mountains will like with the glaciers receded thousands of feet up. These are backed up with 19th century daguerrotypes showing the ice much higher up the moraines and further down the valley than the "aujourdhui" pictures. What they dont mention...is the fact diligently recorded by the institute of glaciology...located in the Chamonix valley... that the historical minumum measures of the major local glaciers occured in the 1960s. So current levels are above those of the 60's minimums. No linear trend line to show, so no series of photos showing the ebb and flow of the frozen monsters. Anyhoo as far as getting an exorcist to entice the glacier further down the mountains the French are probably screwed, seing as how France and its institutions are firmly secular nowadays. I dont know what prescriptions the Koran has for handling rivers of ice..the subject probably didnt come up much in 7th century arabian deserts...so I cant speculate on what a mid 21st century French Caliphate might be able to try.

Posted by: Bryan Travis at Nov 2, 2004 1:17:48 AM

I had to chuckle as I read the article besides chuckling to myself I kept thinking, "global warming my arse!" I see on c-span the congress allocating billions to save the world, oh really? I'm a 64 year old white male, I guess you could say I helped make this so called mess of the atmosphere and screwed up the ozone layer, hell I probably helped cause the hole by smoking and using my air conditioner and spraying with lead based paint, Horrors of horrors....
American industry with the help of new technology has cleaned up it's act considerably, the air is cleaner, there's less smoke and steam released into the atmosphere, etc., etc. Now get off it's back and maybe, just maybe, our industries will return to our shores and once again employ Americans, that's a simplistic view of a very complicated problem.
These people that want to save the world should start by first stopping a simple thunderstorm or tornado, when they do that maybe, just maybe I'll believe their gibberish. My old man always said, clean up your own mess and let mother nature alone, she'll take care of herself quite well, remember she's been doing just that for billions of years without man's help.

Carl Leslie
Hagerstown, MD 21740

Posted by: Carl Leslie at Jul 24, 2005 1:32:57 AM

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Posted by: addie at Sep 11, 2007 12:25:33 AM

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Posted by: addie at Sep 11, 2007 12:25:53 AM

Yes, our planet was actually a lot more polluted before the industrial revolution than it is today. What the crazy environmentalists fail to see is that the answer to air pollution, for instance, is not reducing industry or the number of cars but the exact opposite. Lomborg's findings indicate that the more people in the world drive their own cars and the more industry there is around, the less polluted the environment is.

Take as an example the air pollution problem in Beijing. Just some time ago most people living in that city drove bicycles and there was no problem with air pollution. Now more and more people are driving their own cars and there is a huge problem with air pollution. The environmentalistically correct answer to the problem would undoubtedly be to reduce the amount of car traffic. The real problem, however, is that not ENOUGH people in Beijing are driving their own cars.

What needs to be done to solve the problem of air pollution in Beijing is to empower the people financially so that they can spend money as freely as the average American. If everyone in Beijing would have enough spending power to own at least one car (of course several would be preferable), they would be empowered to make ecologically sound consumer decisions, like driving motor vehicles instead of those dirty low-tech bicycles.

In his native Denmark Lomborg has been laughed out of the academy because of his revolutionary discovery that the industrialisation of the world is making the planet a better place for life. But this of course is just a conspiracy of lay environmentalists, not the result of people who, unlike Lomborg, are actually, you know, environmental scientists.

Posted by: Masameus at Sep 19, 2007 3:54:54 AM