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January 23, 2005

Ice Age Comes

Now here's a dumb one from the halls of "science".

The amount of fresh water entering the Arctic Ocean from the rivers that feed it is increasing, UK scientists report.

That would be because the arctic runs in multi-decade cycles. Now if only scientists can just decide what constitutes the Arctic, or whether they should even mention that it's cooler than it was in the 1930's.

Writing in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, they say the increase is caused in part by human activities and is an early sign of climate change.

Back in my day we had a cute name for the annual "early sign of climate change". We called it the fuckin' weather, which changes drastically from year to year, or people wouldn't talk about it all the time.

The rise in fresh water entering the Arctic Ocean could change the global distribution of water, the team says.

As happens every time it rains and every time it doesn't. They must've missed the "Pee locally, evaporate globally" bumper stickers.

It could also affect the balance of the climate system itself and even possibly alter the behaviour of the Gulf Stream.

I've seen this movie. In seven to ten working days the entire planet turns into an overwrought epic, so cold that people freeze into solid blocks of ice in mere seconds, or on the other hand can walk across a glacier the size of North America while living in cheap nylon tents, depending on how good their Hollywood agent is.

The team is from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, part of the UK Met Office.

Boy, what a sucky job. Drawing a paycheck for predicting climate means you have to occasionally put out a news grabbing prediction for the barking heads at the BBC to babble about, and then hope nobody looks it up ten years later.

The global hydrological cycle is the exchange of water between the land, the oceans and the atmosphere. The rate of the exchange is expected to increase as the Earth warms.

Part of the process is likely to mean more precipitation (hail, rain, sleet and snow) at higher latitudes, and so more water flowing down the rivers.

And all that extra fresh water flowing into the oceans will drop the ocean salt content because, erm, well as we all know rain comes from they sky, not that silly myth about ocean evaporation that leaves the sea saltier till the river water meets back up later.

If the global water distribution changes, this could have important social and economic consequences. An altered hydrological cycle might conceivably have a profound cooling effect on north-west Europe as well.

Well, glad we nixed those stupid global warming worries. The ice age cometh, and as a descendant of skilled mammoth hunters I'll mention that an SUV and a Browning .50 works a hell of a lot better than a spear and grass boots, not to mention their utility for pushing little hippie-filled hybrids into crevasses, a well earned fate for those who publish a prediction that includes the words "might conceivably".

The American Geophysical Union, publisher of the journal, says: "It could also alter the balance of the climate system itself, such as the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, a kind of conveyor belt.

Yep, the ocean is a vast conveyor belt, which follows from thinking of them as a Walmart distribution center, with currents as the first step in moving cod to your dinner table.  To keep it in terms a BBC journalist can understand they should've stuck in something about the ocean's never ending quest for haline justice.

"Cold water flows southward in the Atlantic at great depths to the tropics, where it warms, rises, and returns northward near the surface.

"This flow helps keep northern Europe at a temperate climate, whereas the same latitudes in North America are sparsely settled tundra or taiga."

Actually, the technical term for tundra we use over here is "Canada".

The Hadley researchers compared data published in 2002 from observations of Siberian river flows with model simulations, to see whether they could identify a human influence on the increase in fresh water.

And you can download NASA's Global Climate Model software for your own PC here, for free. It looks slick, but don't be shocked when your sleek new machine mumbles

OPEN(UNIT=2, FILE="GIGO.DAT",status='fucking_old')

But at least you don't have to find a USB compatible punched-card reader to input your FORTRAN deck.

They point out that higher emissions of greenhouse gases, caused by human activities, are expected to intensify the hydrological cycle in the Arctic, with higher precipitation there balanced by a reduction in the tropics.

Whatever you do, don't Google NASA cloud models and start reading the links, lest you find tons of random papers like this PDF.

The main conclusions are that i) almost all models strongly under-predicted both cloud cover and cloud amount in the stratocumulus regions while ii) the situation is opposite in the trade wind region and the tropics where cloud cover and cloud amount are over-predicted by most models. This deficiencies result in a over-prediction of the down-welling surface shortwave radiation of typically 60 W/m^2 in the stratocumulus regimes and a similar under-prediction of 60 W/m^2 in the trade wind regions and in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Global warming hysteria hinges on a 0.5 W/m^2 imbalance, when our cloud fudge factors run 60 to 100 W/m^2 or more, which isn't so bad since a recent NASA satellite resolved the debates about whether the earth is on average 50% or 75% covered by clouds. I'm just glad we didn't misplace a couple continents in the error bars.

They tested the model with four simulations which took into account both human inputs and natural factors, including solar variability and volcanic eruptions.

The results showed a steady increase in river discharges, especially since the 1960s, with the annual rate of increase since 1965 8.73 cubic kilometers, far greater than the long-term trend.

Strangely enough, this "steady increase" must've been occurring during the cooling trend prevalent during the 1970's, one so pronounced it had everyone worried about the next ice age. Since then moonbattery has advanced enough to worry about simultaneous broiling and freezing, an idea that earlier climate modelers didn't think an educated public would buy into. Thank goodness for the NEA.

The simulations excluded human impacts in one instance and natural impacts in another, and included all factors in a third.

Over the past four decades, they say, human activity played the major role in the increased flows, and it is likely that the upward trend is part of the early stages of an intensified hydrological cycle.

Keep in mind that the only way they can get a climate model to keep from exploding within 10 days of simulated time is to punch in fudge factors till it achieves stability, what with the 10% errors all over the place. But once one model achieves stability, just use the magic of billions of floating point calculations to indirectly say "T(co2_induced)=T(natural) + 2.0;" and then sit back and listen to the jingling cash registers.

Dr Peili Wu, a team member, told the BBC: "It looks clear to us that this is an early signal of human-induced climate change. If only natural factors were involved, you wouldn't get these results.

That's because the model has to get tweaked till it quits exploding, always step one, which to create the "natural" reference model. Step two involves kicking it, while step three is the press release.

It is possible the increase in fresh water entering the Arctic Ocean could contribute to an alteration in the thermohaline circulation, because it is diluting the saltiness of the seawater and reducing its density."

It's also possible that most climate modelers have to predict disaster or find another job. Just remember, we must reduce the earth's global temperature to avoid an impending ice-age, where we'll find ourselves having to keep cool by breaking off glacier hunks in the backyard.

January 23, 2005 in Global Warming | Permalink

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Comments

Argh! Now I'm going to have nightmares about USB-compatible punched card readers for at least a week!

And what's with that semicolon? Did you suddenly switch to C in the middle of the article?

(yes, I make a living programming in FORTRAN)

Posted by: Anachronda at Jan 26, 2005 9:46:45 PM

Wow Anachronda!

I didn't think I'd have a reader left!

I do like how FORTRAN handles arrays, though. Duplicating the actual versatility in 'C' is quite a pain.

Posted by: George Turner at Jan 27, 2005 1:17:24 AM

Does this mean that your hiatus is finally over?

Posted by: Watcher at Jan 27, 2005 3:44:06 AM

I usually check in here after I see a post by you over at the Rott, since that's an indication that you've had a bit of spare time...

There a number of things I really, really like about FORTRAN, particularly FORTRAN-95. Although I do realize that many of the things that make it livable for me are DEC, uh, Compaq, uh, HP, uh, I think they sold the compilers to Intel extensions.

I also use C quite a bit, but prefer FORTRAN where I can use. I can't use it for device drivers, though. Being able to write device drivers in C is, however, a big improvement over having to write them in assembly language.

And by now everyone should have realized that I'm a VMS guy...

Posted by: Anachronda at Jan 27, 2005 1:21:16 PM

Excellent dismemberment, George.

Since Crichton's 'State of Fear' came out, I think I detect a certain desperation in the climate change crew. Did you get a look at the international climate change taskforce's recent report? "No amount of climate change is safe". Well, pardon my ancestors for evolving during a prior ice age...Some of the pull quotes in the document allude to making sure that poverty eradication is part of climate change policy. This speaks volumes, as does the fact that a report that alleges that we will pass the "point of no return" in 10 years has recommendations for 20 years of policy...

Posted by: DaveJustDave at Jan 27, 2005 8:42:46 PM

Just love the margin of error there...

Gotta say, I just swung by to see if you were still posting, and was pleased to see a new post about science.

You're one of the few who can post about science and make sense of the hash of numbers, assumptions, claims, models, and...the odd fact.

Posted by: steve h at Feb 3, 2005 11:28:15 AM

Ditto the first comment. A USB (2.0?) punchcard reader is a darkly comical hallucination on a number of levels. Some day we will be able to afford such riches as to be able to order such a device out of pure whimsey, or maybe for a dull science project for poorly adjusted 14 year olds.

Posted by: Bryan Travis at Feb 6, 2005 12:51:40 AM

You are SO right.

Posted by: The General at Feb 6, 2005 1:19:02 PM

Well, I'm stuck down at Dell, trying to do the mathematically impossible task of bringing about a zero error rate on robot lines run by bored immigrants from North Africa, the Middle East, Kosovo, and Lord knows where else. Around Christmas we even had an elf running a line, if you can believe it.

I've been studying climate models further, and the single column models (a vertical slice of a 3-D climate model) are interesting. They include no electrical effects at all, lightning be damned, and their predictions predictably diverge wildly from both reality and each other within a week.

It's odd that we're going through all this climate model worship when the code would have only somewhat more accuracy predicting the future state of an elevator shaft above a basement steam pipe rupture as a witchdoctor feeling the entrails of a chicken.

Digging deeper, all clouds are grey, the massive electric fields generated by thunderstorms doesn't exist, much less shoot tendrils of lightning 75 km up, nor does this massive movement of electrical charges and roiling of the planet's E-field interact (do work) on the charged particles streaming past us from the sun.

A thermodynamicist might say that our black box has a hole in it, given that massive local changes in the E-field are taken to consume power and perform work on the external system whenever the captain says "raise shields", but then that's just me.

Posted by: George Turner at Feb 7, 2005 4:55:36 AM

keep up the good work!
;)

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Posted by: Gertrude at Aug 17, 2007 6:20:52 AM

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Posted by: Joakim at Aug 17, 2007 2:21:41 PM

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Posted by: Nicholas at Aug 18, 2007 8:33:41 PM

See DancingFromGenesis.wordpress.com for more info about the hydrology of the Ice Age. Look under the cateogory Catastrophic Climate Change.

Posted by: IceAgeCivilizations at Oct 8, 2007 7:59:37 AM

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Posted by: 信長の野望 RMT at Jun 28, 2010 2:23:01 AM

For the reason of global warming temperature rises and drops on extremes. On polar areas temperature lowers down early as it was expected. This affects the balance of climate system. Human activities are one reason for this change. Well then who are we to blame for the drastic effect of nature to humans?

Posted by: cmcgov at Nov 26, 2010 3:31:17 AM