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February 24, 2005

Abiotic Oil

Whether abiotic oil be certainty or insanity, the arguments this link presents are of low viscosity.  In his comments on how the theory would have no effect whether true or not, he puts for some dicey arguments like this one:

Secondly, petroleum geology is an empirical field which has evolved largely by trial and error. Petroleum geologists have learned the hard way where to drill (and where not to drill); in the process they have developed a theoretical model that WORKS. It is somewhat difficult to believe that generations of smart petroleum geologists missed huge amounts of oil.

He somehow ignores the fact that petroleum geologists are still making huge new finds, in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and all over the place.  By his logic those finds shouldn't exist because it means they were missed by the previous generation of smart petroleum geologists.

Put another way, a Keynsian and a perfect-market economist are at an economic summit meeting in Manhattan, and when lunch rolls around they head out to find a deli.  As they're walking along they both spy a $100 bill lying on the sidewalk.  The perfect-market economist doesn't even break stride as he steps past it, and the Keynesian asks, "Aren't you going to pick that up?"  "Of course not; it's fake," replied the perfect-market man, "If it was a real one hundred dollar bill someone would've already grabbed it."

On top of that, only about 0.25% of the earth's crust down to 10km is limestone, and about 0.75% sandstone.  Petroleum geologists have rarely, if ever, sunk a hole down deep into the bedrock, because as my textbook of petroleum geology makes plain, there's no oil down there.  Unless a geologist was drilling for somekind of malpractice lawsuit instead of oil, he would stop the bit shortly after grinding on the granite.  That means our drilling has been limited to the places where the data shows oil is a good possibility, leaving the vast, vast majority of the crust unprobed.

February 24, 2005 in Science | Permalink

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Comments

Interesting. I know nothing about petroleum geology, but I've read my share of boring reports (so wonderfully named) for job sites. I've actually worked on design projects where crude was found on site--not enough or of a sort to be of value, just enough to make foundation design that much more fun. Usually its more of a mix of rotten vegetative slop just beneath the water table.

Have you read about those scientists who've developed fairly cheap ways to reconstitute thinks like plastic and chicken guts into gasoline?. I read about it in Discover a year or two ago.

Posted by: edog von winter at Feb 24, 2005 7:04:38 PM

In Steven den Beste's archives their are several good articles on biomass and other alternative fuel sources.

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2003/06/Biomass.shtml

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/AnewManhattanProject.shtml

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/06/Energyscalingproblems.shtml

Roughly speaking the numbers don't work out when you try to upscale biomaas to satsify anything like a percentage of the market. You get more fuel out than you have to use to produce it but it's just not effiecient enough for large scale production.

Posted by: toad at Feb 27, 2005 2:57:13 AM

If there's more oil, then we can stop bombing people for it.

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